Dive Brief:
- GSK on Wednesday raised its financial forecasts for the year following strong quarterly sales of its vaccines and HIV medicines.
- GSK said vaccine sales surged 16% compared to the same period a year ago, a number driven by revenue totals for its shingles shot Shingrix and RSV vaccine Arexvy. New public immunization programs in Europe and other international market drove sales of Shingrix, while Arexvy continued to take more market share than Pfizer’s rival RSV shot Abrysvo.
- The company now expects its 2024 sales to grow at the higher end of the 5% to 7% range it previously projected, and for annual adjusted earnings per share to climb 8% to 10%. Still, GSK warned that growth could slow later this year amid shifting seasonal patterns for vaccinations and changes in market dynamics.
Dive Insight:
So far, GSK has had a decisive edge in a high-stakes commercial battle with Pfizer.
Last May, its shot for respiratory syncytial virus, or RSV, became the first of its kind to be cleared by drug regulators, coming weeks before the clearance of Pfizer’s rival vaccine. Though both vaccines were proven in testing to be effective tools in preventing against RSV infections and related illness, Arexvy has been a bigger seller, owning two-thirds of the market share in the U.S.
Still, after a strong early launch, sales have been slowing. In the third quarter of 2023, Arexvy generated 700 million pounds, or about $874 million, in sales. Those numbers declined to 529 million pounds in the fourth quarter and 182 million pounds in the first three months of 2024. Sales of Abrysvo have decelerated, too, with Pfizer reporting $515 million in the last three months of 2023 and $145 million in quarterly earnings reported Wednesday.
The slowdown is expected due to the seasonality of RSV, however. Infections tend to tick up in the fall and climb during the winter. As a result, vaccinations are more common in the summer and the months that follow.
GSK also aims to expand use of Arexvy to adults between the ages of 50 and 59. It’s currently cleared for use in people at least 60 years of age. A regulatory review is ongoing, with an FDA decision expected by June 7.
Elsewhere, the shingles vaccine Shingrix remained its top-selling shot, bringing in 945 million pounds in sales in the first quarter. Demand surged internationally, GSK said, with half of worldwide sales now coming from markets outside the U.S.
U.S. sales, though, have declined amid changes to Medicare Part D and the prioritization of vaccines for flu and COVID-19.